AF8 - What is it?

AF8 (which stands for Alpine Fault Magnitude 8) is a collaborative effort to save lives by planning and preparing a coordinated response across the South Island following a severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault.

AF8 commenced in July 2016 with a focus on scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to address that knowledge gap. It’s a partnership of all the Emergency Management Groups in the South Island, funded by the Government through the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management’s Resilience Fund. It involves scientists from six universities and Crown Research Institutes, emergency services, lifelines, iwi, health authorities and many other partner agencies.

AF8 is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, coordinated response planning, and community engagement, designed to build resilience to the next Alpine Fault earthquake.

While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research indicates there is a 75% probability of an Alpine Fault earthquake occurring in the next 50 years, and that there is a 4 out of 5 chance that it will be a magnitude 8+ event. Geological evidence also shows that the Alpine Fault has a remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. Over the last 8000 years, the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times, on average that’s every 300 years. The last significant quake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. The next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within the lifetime of most of us, or our children.

AF8 aims to share Alpine Fault hazard and impact science and preparedness information widely, through communication and engagement activities, to increase awareness, enable conversation and build societal preparedness to natural hazard events in Te Waipounamu our South Island.

AF8 Hazard Scenario

This StoryMap shares a credible science-based hazard scenario developed by AF8 to help us plan and prepare for an Alpine Fault earthquake. Click here to view.

AF8 Videos - click here

Emergency Management Southland Videos - click here

Get Community Ready - ways you can help your community prepare - click here